Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Heat, while the market favors Jazz (59%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Heat (-11.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (100%) · Heat at 42¢ · $415 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Heat
5
Heat 100%
$414.63
-$3.83
41.4¢ → 41.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidHeat at 42%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Jazz 59%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Heatavg 41¢ | $188.49 | $188.49 | +$0 | 48% 218-232 (450) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Heatavg 41¢ | $119.72 | $119.72 | +$0 | 50% 1387-1404 (2791) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Heatavg 43¢ | $83.6 | $79.77 | -$3.83 | 47% 147-167 (314) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Heatavg 41¢ | $16.4 | $16.4 | +$0 | 24% 202-637 (839) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Heatavg 41¢ | $10.25 | $10.25 | +$0 | 48% 409-445 (854) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$188.49
Value
$188.49
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
218-232 (450)
Invested
$119.72
Value
$119.72
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1387-1404 (2791)
Invested
$83.6
Value
$79.77
PnL
-$3.83
Record
47%
147-167 (314)
Invested
$16.4
Value
$16.4
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
202-637 (839)
Invested
$10.25
Value
$10.25
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
409-445 (854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.