Heat vs. Jazz

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (45%) · Heat at 80¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11

Heat80¢Jazz20¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 45%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$25.96

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 79.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat80%

Jazz21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,615

Combined PnL+$21.55

Jazz6 traders

Total Value$333.59

Total Shares1,555

Combined PnL-$47.51

Heat — 45%Jazz — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Heatavg 78¢	$557.94	$568.67	+$10.73	54% 319-276 (595)
HO HomeRunHazard	Heatavg 79¢	$487.94	$491.03	+$3.09	30% 29-67 (96)
38 38791873984189CTR	Jazzavg 22.8¢	$322.65	$229.81	-$21.57	50% 405-412 (817)
OD Oddstorm	Heatavg 74.1¢	$142.39	$149	+$7.22	2% 1-48 (49)
PU purplegatto<$100	Heatavg 80¢	$68.94	$68.51	-$0.43	2% 3-161 (164)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Jazzavg 37.9¢	$55.9	$31.89	-$24.01	36% 100-177 (277)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jazzavg 22.4¢	$30.32	$29.94	-$0.39	49% 183-194 (377)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Jazzavg 22¢	$19.36	$18.48	-$0.88	27% 84-223 (307)
nigiri99<$100	Heatavg 75¢	$15.75	$16.7	+$0.95	42% 29-40 (69)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Jazzavg 21¢	$14.46	$14.46	-$0	48% 69-75 (144)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Jazzavg 22¢	$9.68	$9.02	-$0.66	48% 131-141 (272)

Flaznorp

Heat

Invested

$557.94

Value

$568.67

PnL

+$10.73

Record

54%

319-276 (595)

HomeRunHazard

Heat

Invested

$487.94

Value

$491.03

PnL

+$3.09

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

38791873984189CTR

Jazz

Invested

$322.65

Value

$229.81

PnL

-$21.57

Record

50%

405-412 (817)

Oddstorm

Heat

Invested

$142.39

Value

$149

PnL

+$7.22

Record

1-48 (49)

purplegatto<$100

Heat

Invested

$68.94

Value

$68.51

PnL

-$0.43

Record

3-161 (164)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$55.9

Value

$31.89

PnL

-$24.01

Record

36%

100-177 (277)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$30.32

Value

$29.94

PnL

-$0.39

Record

49%

183-194 (377)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$19.36

Value

$18.48

PnL

-$0.88

Record

27%

84-223 (307)

nigiri99<$100

Heat

Invested

$15.75

Value

$16.7

PnL

+$0.95

Record

42%

29-40 (69)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$14.46

Value

$14.46

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

69-75 (144)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$9.68

Value

$9.02

PnL

-$0.66

Record

48%

131-141 (272)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.