Spread: Heat (-8.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (38%) · Heat at 56¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 9

Heat56¢Kings44¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$222.89

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 56.5¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat56%

Kings44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,434

Combined PnL+$285.49

Kings8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,872

Combined PnL-$62.6

Heat — 38%Kings — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Heat) and the top 1000 (10 on Kings) disagree here.

whaleHeat 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrHeat 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MAGATheeStallion	Heatavg 51.9¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$207.24	58% 291-214 (505)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Kingsavg 48¢	$2.7K	$2.1K	+$24.53	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	+$1.44
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 53.8¢	$738.36	$761.55	+$23.09
nigiri99	Heatavg 52.1¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$79.11	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
73 739633786CTR	Kingsavg 44.5¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$25.31	44% 442-560 (1002)
LI LimousinCTR	Kingsavg 48¢	$647.89	$288.31	-$22.68	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
PU purplegatto	Heatavg 56¢	$275	$152.63	-$1.38	49% 6674-6865 (13539)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Kingsavg 43¢	$113.13	$114.45	+$1.32	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
SE sentrioCTR	Kingsavg 49¢	$212.24	$94.45	-$9.55	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Kingsavg 48.5¢	$166.03	$73.88	-$6.63	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Kingsavg 43¢	$60.45	$61.15	+$0.7	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
VeryLucky888<$100	Heatavg 55¢	$68.73	$38.15	+$0.34	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Kingsavg 48¢	$38.25	$18.48	-$0.28	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
TH TheComboConnoisseur<$100	Heatavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.78	+$0.18	53% 1279-1133 (2412)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Kingsavg 48¢	$5	$2.23	-$0.18	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

MAGATheeStallion

Heat

Invested

$2,999.88

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$207.24

Record

58%

291-214 (505)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$2,666.89

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$24.53

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Both legs:

Kings$1,398.9948¢+$1.44

Heat$738.3653.8¢+$23.09

nigiri99

Heat

Invested

$1,201.28

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$79.11

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

739633786CTR

Kings

Invested

$1,074.71

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$25.31

Record

44%

442-560 (1002)

LimousinCTR

Kings

Invested

$647.89

Value

$288.31

PnL

-$22.68

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

purplegatto

Heat

Invested

$275

Value

$152.63

PnL

-$1.38

Record

49%

6674-6865 (13539)

LightParadoxCTR

Kings

Invested

$113.13

Value

$114.45

PnL

+$1.32

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

sentrioCTR

Kings

Invested

$212.24

Value

$94.45

PnL

-$9.55

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

SnakeBallCTR

Kings

Invested

$166.03

Value

$73.88

PnL

-$6.63

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

NM-PCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$60.45

Value

$61.15

PnL

+$0.7

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

VeryLucky888<$100

Heat

Invested

$68.73

Value

$38.15

PnL

+$0.34

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$38.25

Value

$18.48

PnL

-$0.28

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

TheComboConnoisseur<$100

Heat

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

1279-1133 (2412)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$0.18

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Heat

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Heat) and the top 1000 (10 on Kings) disagree here.

whaleHeat 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrHeat 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.