Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Clippers, while the market favors Heat (67%). 10 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Heat vs. Clippers

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (67%) · Clippers at 34¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 5

Heat67¢Clippers33¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$37.33

Smart Money Entry

34¢ → 33.5¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 34%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

10 of 15 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat67%

Clippers34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,032

Combined PnL+$3.67

Clippers10 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares11,766

Combined PnL+$33.66

Heat — 33%Clippers — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrClippers 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Clippers 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AP AppleTiiime	Heatavg 65.3¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$6.11	55% 60-49 (109)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Clippersavg 34¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0	44% 109-137 (246)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Clippersavg 34.1¢	$856.59	$867.86	+$11.27	51% 4652-4485 (9137)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Clippersavg 34.1¢	$845.66	$856.7	+$11.05	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Clippersavg 34.1¢	$522.45	$512.63	-$9.81	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Clippersavg 34.1¢	$434.08	$433.15	-$0.93	40% 1398-2089 (3487)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 34.1¢	$323.65	$318.4	-$5.25
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 64¢	$110.44	$114.75	+$4.31
VeryLucky888CTR	Clippersavg 34¢	$1.3K	$430.65	+$16.78	58% 45573-32987 (78560)
PU purplegatto	Heatavg 66.1¢	$337.96	$306.87	+$2.36	49% 6216-6354 (12570)
GA Gaditima	Heatavg 66.9¢	$185.63	$180.45	-$3.79	48% 7113-7815 (14928)
GC GC-PCTR	Clippersavg 33¢	$165	$167.5	+$2.5	39% 1400-2160 (3560)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Clippersavg 34¢	$136	$136	+$0	51% 1831-1762 (3593)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Heatavg 64.4¢	$81.79	$78.6	+$0.37	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 64.4¢	$46.85	$47.26	+$0.41
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 34.1¢	$31.42	$31.34	-$0.04
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Heatavg 65¢	$68.05	$68.05	-$0.52	64% 1925-1073 (2998)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Heatavg 66.1¢	$28.43	$27.94	-$0.49	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Clippersavg 32¢	$16.78	$18.7	+$1.93	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Clippersavg 34¢	$3.4	$3.4	+$0	53% 4711-4219 (8930)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Clippersavg 35¢	$1.77	$1.72	-$0.05	50% 25577-25281 (50858)

AppleTiiime

Heat

Invested

$2,047.09

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$6.11

Record

55%

60-49 (109)

DolphinBallerCTR

Clippers

Invested

$1,019.98

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

109-137 (246)

6512395314597884CTR

Clippers

Invested

$856.59

Value

$867.86

PnL

+$11.27

Record

51%

4652-4485 (9137)

HerdoniaCTR

Clippers

Invested

$845.66

Value

$856.7

PnL

+$11.05

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Clippers

Invested

$522.45

Value

$512.63

PnL

-$9.81

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

NM-PARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$434.08

Value

$433.15

PnL

-$0.93

Record

40%

1398-2089 (3487)

Both legs:

Clippers$323.6534.1¢-$5.25

Heat$110.4464¢+$4.31

VeryLucky888CTR

Clippers

Invested

$1,297.55

Value

$430.65

PnL

+$16.78

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

purplegatto

Heat

Invested

$337.96

Value

$306.87

PnL

+$2.36

Record

49%

6216-6354 (12570)

Gaditima

Heat

Invested

$185.63

Value

$180.45

PnL

-$3.79

Record

48%

7113-7815 (14928)

GC-PCTR

Clippers

Invested

$165

Value

$167.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

39%

1400-2160 (3560)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Clippers

Invested

$136

Value

$136

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1831-1762 (3593)

ghorrockARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$81.79

Value

$78.6

PnL

+$0.37

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

Both legs:

Heat$46.8564.4¢+$0.41

Clippers$31.4234.1¢-$0.04

darkumbreon88<$100

Heat

Invested

$68.05

Value

$68.05

PnL

-$0.52

Record

64%

1925-1073 (2998)

Flaznorp<$100

Heat

Invested

$28.43

Value

$27.94

PnL

-$0.49

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$16.78

Value

$18.7

PnL

+$1.93

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

4711-4219 (8930)

sentrioCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$1.77

Value

$1.72

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

25577-25281 (50858)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 34%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

10 of 15 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrClippers 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Clippers 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.