Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Heat vs. Warriors: O/U 235.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 49¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 6

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$334.76

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 48.5¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares8,004

Combined PnL+$297.17

Over4 traders

Total Value$763.31

Total Shares1,482

Combined PnL+$37.59

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Underavg 52.2¢	$3.0K	$3.3K	+$218.14	42% 8004-11194 (19198)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 45.3¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$182.89	54% 18232-15342 (33574)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.3¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$184.91
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.7¢	$554.35	$552.32	-$2.02
TH TheComboConnoisseurCTR	Underavg 51¢	$1,000	$565	+$55	53% 1110-972 (2082)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 50¢	$478.62	$485.11	+$6.49	50% 25827-25531 (51358)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 46.8¢	$406.57	$447.07	+$40.5	51% 25760-24462 (50222)
NM NM-P	Overavg 44¢	$188.65	$185.78	-$2.87	64% 9927-5529 (15456)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 52.5¢	$121.73	$129.92	+$7.6	46% 8594-10246 (18840)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 51¢	$102.49	$103.49	+$1	51% 1902-1853 (3755)
HE Herdonia<$100	Overavg 44.7¢	$28.01	$26.96	-$1.05	51% 3806-3729 (7535)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 51.3¢	$21.24	$23.21	+$0.21	50% 21182-21443 (42625)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 50¢	$473.6	$15.47	+$9.73	58% 46700-33657 (80357)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Under

Invested

$3,038.95

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$218.14

Record

42%

8004-11194 (19198)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,567.31

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$182.89

Record

54%

18232-15342 (33574)

Both legs:

Over$2,012.9645.3¢+$184.91

Under$554.3550.7¢-$2.02

TheComboConnoisseurCTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$565

PnL

+$55

Record

53%

1110-972 (2082)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$478.62

Value

$485.11

PnL

+$6.49

Record

50%

25827-25531 (51358)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$406.57

Value

$447.07

PnL

+$40.5

Record

51%

25760-24462 (50222)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$188.65

Value

$185.78

PnL

-$2.87

Record

64%

9927-5529 (15456)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$121.73

Value

$129.92

PnL

+$7.6

Record

46%

8594-10246 (18840)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$102.49

Value

$103.49

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

1902-1853 (3755)

Herdonia<$100

Over

Invested

$28.01

Value

$26.96

PnL

-$1.05

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.24

Value

$23.21

PnL

+$0.21

Record

50%

21182-21443 (42625)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$473.6

Value

$15.47

PnL

+$9.73

Record

58%

46700-33657 (80357)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.