Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 54¢ · $986 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Over
9
Over 56%
$985.58
-$6.32
56.7¢ → 53.5¢
-6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-1 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR | Underavg 42¢ | $218.19 | $251.95 | +$33.77 | 0% 0-42 (42) |
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 57¢ | $396 | $203.94 | -$21.78 | 45% 38-47 (85) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 45.7¢ | $164.14 | $170.42 | +$9.63 | 30% 29-67 (96) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 58¢ | $316 | $162.74 | -$20.54 | 49% 388-405 (793) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 54¢ | $124.2 | $118.45 | -$5.75 | 67% 29-14 (43) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $43.5 | $33.08 | -$4.18 | 48% 174-190 (364) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $24.94 | $28.13 | +$3.19 | 42% 28-38 (66) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $8.85 | $9.54 | +$0.69 | 24% 90-284 (374) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $13.62 | $7.34 | -$1.34 | 53% 87-77 (164) |
Invested
$218.19
Value
$251.95
PnL
+$33.77
Record
0%
0-42 (42)
Invested
$396
Value
$203.94
PnL
-$21.78
Record
45%
38-47 (85)
Invested
$164.14
Value
$170.42
PnL
+$9.63
Record
30%
29-67 (96)
Invested
$316
Value
$162.74
PnL
-$20.54
Record
49%
388-405 (793)
0xheavy888Invested
$124.2
Value
$118.45
PnL
-$5.75
Record
67%
29-14 (43)
Invested
$43.5
Value
$33.08
PnL
-$4.18
Record
48%
174-190 (364)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$24.94
Value
$28.13
PnL
+$3.19
Record
42%
28-38 (66)
Invested
$8.85
Value
$9.54
PnL
+$0.69
Record
24%
90-284 (374)
Invested
$13.62
Value
$7.34
PnL
-$1.34
Record
53%
87-77 (164)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.