Spread: Raptors (-4.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (63%) · Grizzlies at 66¢ · $612 held · ends Nov 10

Raptors34¢Grizzlies66¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$611.51

Combined PnL

$36.4

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 66¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Raptors34%

Grizzlies66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies5 traders

Total Value$441.89

Total Shares667

Combined PnL+$37.93

Raptors3 traders

Total Value$46.69

Total Shares137

Combined PnL-$1.53

Grizzlies — 63%Raptors — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGrizzlies 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Grizzliesavg 57.4¢	$168.46	$193.68	+$25.22	30% 29-67 (96)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Grizzliesavg 62¢	$152.48	$162.32	+$9.84	2% 4-203 (207)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Raptorsavg 42.5¢	$141.95	$122.93	-$19.02	45% 38-47 (85)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 42.5¢	$101.51	$81.23	-$20.28
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 64¢	$40.44	$41.7	+$1.26
38 38791873984189<$100	Grizzliesavg 64¢	$45.08	$46.48	+$1.41	49% 388-405 (793)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 44.2¢	$45.35	$44.39	-$0.96	24% 84-270 (354)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Grizzliesavg 63¢	$34.71	$36.1	+$1.39	52% 242-227 (469)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Grizzliesavg 55¢	$3.22	$3.3	+$0.08	19% 44-191 (235)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 45¢	$2.25	$1.7	-$0.55	23% 49-166 (215)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 43¢	$0.62	$0.6	-$0.03	3% 9-250 (259)

HomeRunHazard

Grizzlies

Invested

$168.46

Value

$193.68

PnL

+$25.22

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Grizzlies

Invested

$152.48

Value

$162.32

PnL

+$9.84

Record

4-203 (207)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$141.95

Value

$122.93

PnL

-$19.02

Record

45%

38-47 (85)

Both legs:

Raptors$101.5142.5¢-$20.28

Grizzlies$40.4464¢+$1.26

38791873984189<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$45.08

Value

$46.48

PnL

+$1.41

Record

49%

388-405 (793)

VenusianCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$45.35

Value

$44.39

PnL

-$0.96

Record

24%

84-270 (354)

Flaznorp<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$34.71

Value

$36.1

PnL

+$1.39

Record

52%

242-227 (469)

ameisgoat11<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$3.22

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0.08

Record

19%

44-191 (235)

sentrioCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2.25

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$0.55

Record

23%

49-166 (215)

hi774cCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$0.03

Record

9-250 (259)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGrizzlies 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.