Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (43%) · Raptors at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10

Grizzlies38¢Raptors62¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 43%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$30.86

Smart Money Entry

67.3¢ → 62¢

-8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies38%

Raptors62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,769

Combined PnL-$101.32

Grizzlies4 traders

Total Value$902.87

Total Shares2,345

Combined PnL+$132.19

Raptors — 43%Grizzlies — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Raptorsavg 67.3¢	$808.68	$738.71	-$69.97	47% 82-92 (174)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Grizzliesavg 33¢	$1.3K	$483.56	+$69.08	52% 242-227 (469)
38 38791873984189	Raptorsavg 67.4¢	$343.5	$303.6	-$27.1	49% 388-405 (793)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Grizzliesavg 32.4¢	$560.17	$215.66	+$34.31	26% 89-254 (343)
VE VenusianCTR	Grizzliesavg 33¢	$500	$192.5	+$27.5	24% 84-270 (354)
PA Pan9X<$100	Raptorsavg 67¢	$77.94	$47.93	-$4.26	48% 174-190 (364)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 34¢	$28.96	$11.15	+$1.3	24% 90-284 (374)

Anon455

Raptors

Invested

$808.68

Value

$738.71

PnL

-$69.97

Record

47%

82-92 (174)

FlaznorpCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,256

Value

$483.56

PnL

+$69.08

Record

52%

242-227 (469)

38791873984189

Raptors

Invested

$343.5

Value

$303.6

PnL

-$27.1

Record

49%

388-405 (793)

LightParadoxCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$560.17

Value

$215.66

PnL

+$34.31

Record

26%

89-254 (343)

VenusianCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$500

Value

$192.5

PnL

+$27.5

Record

24%

84-270 (354)

Pan9X<$100

Raptors

Invested

$77.94

Value

$47.93

PnL

-$4.26

Record

48%

174-190 (364)

LimousinCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$28.96

Value

$11.15

PnL

+$1.3

Record

24%

90-284 (374)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.