Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Grizzlies, while the market favors Raptors (56%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (50%) · Grizzlies at 44¢ · $201 held · ends Nov 10

Grizzlies44¢Raptors56¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 50%

Total Value

$201.48

Combined PnL

$27.17

Smart Money Entry

36.9¢ → 43.5¢

+18% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies44%

Raptors56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies4 traders

Total Value$178.57

Total Shares401

Combined PnL+$30.35

Raptors4 traders

Total Value$22.91

Total Shares41

Combined PnL-$3.18

Grizzlies — 50%Raptors — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LimousinCTR	Grizzliesavg 37.8¢	$118.29	$139.09	+$20.8	24% 90-284 (374)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 32.9¢	$78.8	$35.07	+$9.15	25% 88-264 (352)
PA Pan9X<$100	Raptorsavg 67¢	$27	$14.99	-$3.11	48% 174-190 (364)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Raptorsavg 56¢	$3.92	$3.95	+$0.03	30% 29-67 (96)
FO forecastication4<$100	Raptorsavg 66¢	$2.64	$2.61	-$0.02	5% 4-79 (83)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 37¢	$1.85	$2.23	+$0.38	52% 242-227 (469)
RN1CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 43¢	$2.17	$2.19	+$0.03	54% 235-203 (438)
AN Anon455<$100	Raptorsavg 59¢	$1.44	$1.35	-$0.09	47% 82-92 (174)

LimousinCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$118.29

Value

$139.09

PnL

+$20.8

Record

24%

90-284 (374)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$78.8

Value

$35.07

PnL

+$9.15

Record

25%

88-264 (352)

Pan9X<$100

Raptors

Invested

$27

Value

$14.99

PnL

-$3.11

Record

48%

174-190 (364)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Raptors

Invested

$3.92

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0.03

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

forecastication4<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.61

PnL

-$0.02

Record

4-79 (83)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$1.85

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.38

Record

52%

242-227 (469)

RN1CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2.17

Value

$2.19

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

235-203 (438)

Anon455<$100

Raptors

Invested

$1.44

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.09

Record

47%

82-92 (174)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.