Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (63%) · Pelicans at 61¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Grizzlies40¢Pelicans60¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$1.57

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 60.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies40%

Pelicans61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,159

Combined PnL+$0.32

Grizzlies3 traders

Total Value$101.38

Total Shares246

Combined PnL+$1.25

Pelicans — 63%Grizzlies — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPelicans 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedPelicans 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pelicans 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Pelicansavg 60¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$0	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Pelicansavg 60¢	$487.41	$487.41	-$0	9% 21-214 (235)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Pelicansavg 60¢	$350	$350	+$0	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 60¢	$210	$210	+$0
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 40¢	$140	$140	+$0
GC GC-PARB<$100	Pelicansavg 60¢	$350	$350	+$0	33% 251-499 (750)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 60¢	$210	$210	+$0
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 40¢	$140	$140	+$0
VeryLucky888	Pelicansavg 60¢	$303.14	$300	+$0.17	53% 1030-921 (1951)
38 38791873984189CTR	Grizzliesavg 39.6¢	$184.64	$97.37	+$1.14	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Pelicansavg 57¢	$2.85	$3	+$0.15	40% 584-893 (1477)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 39¢	$1.96	$2.01	+$0.05	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 39¢	$1.95	$2	+$0.05	43% 808-1065 (1873)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Pelicansavg 60¢	$0.9	$0.91	+$0.01	48% 677-745 (1422)

HomeRunHazard

Pelicans

Invested

$2,903.84

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Pelicans

Invested

$487.41

Value

$487.41

PnL

-$0

Record

21-214 (235)

NM-PARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Both legs:

Invested

$303.14

Value

$300

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

38791873984189CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$184.64

Value

$97.37

PnL

+$1.14

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

ameisgoat11<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$2.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$1.96

Value

$2.01

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

sentrioCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$1.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

SnakeBall<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPelicans 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedPelicans 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pelicans 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.