Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pelicans, while the market favors Grizzlies (54%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (33%) · Pelicans at 47¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Grizzlies54¢Pelicans46¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 33%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

-$63.18

Smart Money Entry

47¢ → 46.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies54%

Pelicans47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans3 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares6,295

Combined PnL-$62.3

Grizzlies6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,384

Combined PnL-$0.88

Pelicans — 33%Grizzlies — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGrizzlies 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Pelicansavg 47¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$62.7	9% 21-214 (235)
HO HomeRunHazard	Grizzliesavg 53¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$0.75	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
VeryLucky888	Grizzliesavg 53¢	$265	$265	+$0	53% 1030-921 (1951)
0xheavy888<$100	Grizzliesavg 56.5¢	$22.6	$21.2	-$1.4	53% 388-339 (727)
PA Pan9X<$100	Grizzliesavg 53¢	$13.25	$13.25	+$0	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 44¢	$8.8	$9.2	+$0.4	35% 735-1379 (2114)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Grizzliesavg 55.5¢	$5.55	$5.3	-$0.25	40% 584-893 (1477)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.3	+$0	35% 749-1385 (2134)
73 739633786<$100	Grizzliesavg 53¢	$2.26	$2.28	+$0.02	8% 17-199 (216)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$2,946.81

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$62.7

Record

21-214 (235)

HomeRunHazard

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,557.01

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$0.75

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

VeryLucky888

Grizzlies

Invested

$265

Value

$265

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

0xheavy888<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$22.6

Value

$21.2

PnL

-$1.4

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

Pan9X<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$13.25

Value

$13.25

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

LimousinCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$8.8

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$0.4

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

ameisgoat11<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$5.55

Value

$5.3

PnL

-$0.25

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

739633786<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.02

Record

17-199 (216)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGrizzlies 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.