Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 228.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 38%
$2.1K
-$23.44
53.5¢ → 52.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 53.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$33.24 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
SU suntoriCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $343.8 | $352.9 | +$9.1 | 46% 3204-3750 (6954) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $30.55 | $30.88 | +$0.32 | 49% 4632-4895 (9527) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $37.55 | $22.72 | +$0.17 | 50% 2174-2194 (4368) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 46.3¢ | $21.89 | $22.08 | +$0.2 | 56% 663-529 (1192) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $3.52 | $3.49 | -$0.03 | 43% 851-1135 (1986) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.38 | +$0.08 | 38% 1338-2179 (3517) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $2.14 | $2.1 | -$0.04 | 53% 1883-1643 (3526) |
Invested
$1,705.55
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$33.24
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
Invested
$343.8
Value
$352.9
PnL
+$9.1
Record
46%
3204-3750 (6954)
Invested
$30.55
Value
$30.88
PnL
+$0.32
Record
49%
4632-4895 (9527)
Invested
$37.55
Value
$22.72
PnL
+$0.17
Record
50%
2174-2194 (4368)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$21.89
Value
$22.08
PnL
+$0.2
Record
56%
663-529 (1192)
Invested
$3.52
Value
$3.49
PnL
-$0.03
Record
43%
851-1135 (1986)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.38
PnL
+$0.08
Record
38%
1338-2179 (3517)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$2.14
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
1883-1643 (3526)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.