Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 227.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 55¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 29%
1 arb excluded
$19.7K
-$349.69
53.4¢ → 54.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 49.4¢ | $5.1K | $5.4K | +$274.68 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49.4¢ | $2.9K | $3.2K | +$298.43 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 46¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$23.75 | |
JO JoeyAroyyOO | Underavg 53.1¢ | $5.1K | $5.2K | +$88.41 | 48% 131-144 (275) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 50.4¢ | $4.1K | $3.7K | -$339.37 | 50% 2863-2911 (5774) |
 nigiri99 | Underavg 53.9¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | +$6.92 | 50% 748-738 (1486) |
HI hi774cCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$89.27 | 26% 249-695 (944) |
SE sentrioCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $247.8 | $242.41 | -$5.39 | 41% 1195-1702 (2897) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 47.5¢ | $19 | $18 | -$1 | 56% 679-534 (1213) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 47¢ | $357.5 | $1.46 | -$10 | 53% 1923-1675 (3598) |
Invested
$5,084.74
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$274.68
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
Both legs:
Invested
$5,106.77
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$88.41
Record
48%
131-144 (275)
Invested
$4,064.87
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$339.37
Record
50%
2863-2911 (5774)
nigiri99Invested
$3,172.06
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$6.92
Record
50%
748-738 (1486)
Invested
$2,097.75
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$89.27
Record
26%
249-695 (944)
Invested
$247.8
Value
$242.41
PnL
-$5.39
Record
41%
1195-1702 (2897)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$19
Value
$18
PnL
-$1
Record
56%
679-534 (1213)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$357.5
Value
$1.46
PnL
-$10
Record
53%
1923-1675 (3598)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.