Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 224.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$102.63

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 48.5¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares6,235

Combined PnL+$108.3

Over6 traders

Total Value$339.71

Total Shares648

Combined PnL-$5.67

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (11 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 45.2¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$104.58	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Underavg 47¢	$452.17	$456.98	+$4.81	48% 131-144 (275)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 47.9¢	$319.64	$317.3	-$2.34	50% 747-737 (1484)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 53¢	$242.5	$131.25	+$6.25	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 61¢	$68.46	$58.4	-$10.06	46% 643-756 (1399)
FO forecastication4<$100	Overavg 54¢	$55.08	$53.55	-$1.53	36% 201-360 (561)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Overavg 53¢	$53	$52.5	-$0.5	39% 234-370 (604)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$33.81	$34.91	+$1.1	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 52¢	$24.35	$24.58	+$0.23	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 52.7¢	$19.49	$19.43	-$0.07	50% 2190-2198 (4388)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$4.8	$4.75	-$0.05	59% 3950-2729 (6679)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.4	+$0.2	43% 861-1147 (2008)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$2,040.96

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$104.58

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Under

Invested

$452.17

Value

$456.98

PnL

+$4.81

Record

48%

131-144 (275)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$319.64

Value

$317.3

PnL

-$2.34

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$242.5

Value

$131.25

PnL

+$6.25

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$68.46

Value

$58.4

PnL

-$10.06

Record

46%

643-756 (1399)

forecastication4<$100

Over

Invested

$55.08

Value

$53.55

PnL

-$1.53

Record

36%

201-360 (561)

BoomLaLa<$100

Over

Invested

$53

Value

$52.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.81

Value

$34.91

PnL

+$1.1

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$24.35

Value

$24.58

PnL

+$0.23

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$19.49

Value

$19.43

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

NM-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$0.05

Record

59%

3950-2729 (6679)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

43%

861-1147 (2008)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (11 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.