Spread: Lakers (-7.5)

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (83%) · Lakers at 57¢ · $982 held · ended Nov 15

Lakers57¢Suns43¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

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⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 83%

Total Value

$982

Combined PnL

$122.88

Smart Money Entry

39¢ → 57¢

+46% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lakers57%

Suns43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers10 traders

Total Value$889.92

Total Shares1,951

Combined PnL+$123.26

Suns2 traders

Total Value$92.08

Total Shares215

Combined PnL-$0.38

Lakers — 83%Suns — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forecastication4	Lakersavg 32¢	$225.02	$246.12	+$21.1	36% 210-367 (577)
38 38791873984189	Lakersavg 33.4¢	$265.99	$214.98	+$97.42	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Lakersavg 54¢	$163.56	$166.36	+$2.79	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
AN Anon455	Lakersavg 54¢	$125.62	$126.79	+$1.16	49% 497-511 (1008)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Sunsavg 42.2¢	$76.18	$76.78	+$0.6	48% 651-710 (1361)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Lakersavg 36¢	$45.72	$44.45	-$1.27	44% 349-436 (785)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Lakersavg 34¢	$39.9	$41.07	+$1.17	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lakersavg 33.3¢	$26.33	$27.65	+$1.32	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Sunsavg 46.8¢	$16.28	$15.31	-$0.97	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
RN1<$100	Lakersavg 54¢	$11.89	$11.34	-$0.55	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Lakersavg 54¢	$9.55	$9.64	+$0.09	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Lakersavg 60¢	$1.5	$1.53	+$0.02	50% 4064-4063 (8127)

forecastication4

Lakers

Invested

$225.02

Value

$246.12

PnL

+$21.1

Record

36%

210-367 (577)

38791873984189

Lakers

Invested

$265.99

Value

$214.98

PnL

+$97.42

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Lakers

Invested

$163.56

Value

$166.36

PnL

+$2.79

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

Anon455

Lakers

Invested

$125.62

Value

$126.79

PnL

+$1.16

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$76.18

Value

$76.78

PnL

+$0.6

Record

48%

651-710 (1361)

Forecastication2<$100

Lakers

Invested

$45.72

Value

$44.45

PnL

-$1.27

Record

44%

349-436 (785)

SnakeBall<$100

Lakers

Invested

$39.9

Value

$41.07

PnL

+$1.17

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

Pan9X<$100

Lakers

Invested

$26.33

Value

$27.65

PnL

+$1.32

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$16.28

Value

$15.31

PnL

-$0.97

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

RN1<$100

Lakers

Invested

$11.89

Value

$11.34

PnL

-$0.55

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

topdogbigboi<$100

Lakers

Invested

$9.55

Value

$9.64

PnL

+$0.09

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

6512395314597884<$100

Lakers

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.