Spread: Lakers (-1.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (42%) · Lakers at 80¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Lakers80¢Suns20¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

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⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 42%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$31.21

Smart Money Entry

83.5¢ → 79.5¢

-5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lakers80%

Suns21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,338

Combined PnL-$63.95

Suns7 traders

Total Value$431.48

Total Shares1,696

Combined PnL+$32.75

Lakers — 42%Suns — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Lakersavg 84.6¢	$1.1K	$983.72	-$69.16	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Sunsavg 42.1¢	$171.94	$173.68	+$1.74	56% 3926-3105 (7031)
RN1CTR	Sunsavg 16.4¢	$88.62	$113.19	+$24.57	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Sunsavg 15¢	$94.37	$99.46	+$5.09	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lakersavg 74¢	$51.1	$56.6	+$5.5	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Sunsavg 15¢	$16.95	$16.95	-$0	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Sunsavg 44¢	$14.08	$13.6	-$0.48	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Sunsavg 19¢	$11.62	$13.36	+$1.74	56% 4194-3285 (7479)
0xheavy888<$100	Lakersavg 56¢	$11.2	$11.5	+$0.3	56% 693-539 (1232)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Lakersavg 85¢	$10.54	$9.8	-$0.74	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Lakersavg 56¢	$5.6	$5.75	+$0.15	43% 875-1153 (2028)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Sunsavg 14¢	$1.16	$1.24	+$0.08	49% 497-511 (1008)

Flaznorp

Lakers

Invested

$1,052.88

Value

$983.72

PnL

-$69.16

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Suns

Invested

$171.94

Value

$173.68

PnL

+$1.74

Record

56%

3926-3105 (7031)

RN1CTR

Suns

Invested

$88.62

Value

$113.19

PnL

+$24.57

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$94.37

Value

$99.46

PnL

+$5.09

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Pan9X<$100

Lakers

Invested

$51.1

Value

$56.6

PnL

+$5.5

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$16.95

Value

$16.95

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$14.08

Value

$13.6

PnL

-$0.48

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$11.62

Value

$13.36

PnL

+$1.74

Record

56%

4194-3285 (7479)

0xheavy888<$100

Lakers

Invested

$11.2

Value

$11.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

56%

693-539 (1232)

ferdinand2<$100

Lakers

Invested

$10.54

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$0.74

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

ameisgoat11<$100

Lakers

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$0.15

Record

43%

875-1153 (2028)

Anon455CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$1.16

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.