Spread: Lakers (-18.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (86%) · Suns at 60¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Lakers40¢Suns60¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 86%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$3.83

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 60¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

6 of 7 top traders (86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers40%

Suns60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns6 traders

Total Value$721.1

Total Shares1,187

Combined PnL+$6.63

Lakers1 trader

Total Value$8

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$2.8

Suns — 86%Lakers — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSuns 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Sunsavg 57¢	$930.57	$935.42	+$4.84	50% 563-572 (1135)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 57¢	$570	$600	+$30
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 43¢	$360.57	$335.42	-$25.16
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Sunsavg 58¢	$584.75	$603.87	+$19.12	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Sunsavg 50¢	$525	$540.75	+$15.75	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 50¢	$262.5	$315	+$52.5
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 50¢	$262.5	$225.75	-$36.75
RN1ARB<$100	Lakersavg 41.7¢	$177.64	$160.54	-$17.1	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 41.7¢	$109.25	$104.74	-$4.51
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 73.5¢	$68.39	$55.8	-$12.59
LR lryyy<$100	Sunsavg 53¢	$46.64	$52.8	+$6.16	45% 1041-1259 (2300)
TA takeormake<$100	Sunsavg 78¢	$30	$23.08	-$6.92	57% 3727-2840 (6567)
FO forecastication4<$100	Sunsavg 87¢	$22.62	$15.6	-$7.02	37% 216-374 (590)
38 38791873984189<$100	Sunsavg 87¢	$21.75	$15	-$6.75	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sunsavg 69.6¢	$47.61	$10.76	+$2.04	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Lakersavg 54¢	$10.8	$8	-$2.8	50% 714-704 (1418)

Anon455ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$930.57

Value

$935.42

PnL

+$4.84

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

Both legs:

Suns$57057¢+$30

Lakers$360.5743¢-$25.16

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Suns

Invested

$584.75

Value

$603.87

PnL

+$19.12

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

NotJumpARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$525

Value

$540.75

PnL

+$15.75

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

Both legs:

Suns$262.550¢+$52.5

Lakers$262.550¢-$36.75

RN1ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$177.64

Value

$160.54

PnL

-$17.1

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Both legs:

Lakers$109.2541.7¢-$4.51

Suns$68.3973.5¢-$12.59

lryyy<$100

Suns

Invested

$46.64

Value

$52.8

PnL

+$6.16

Record

45%

1041-1259 (2300)

takeormake<$100

Suns

Invested

$30

Value

$23.08

PnL

-$6.92

Record

57%

3727-2840 (6567)

forecastication4<$100

Suns

Invested

$22.62

Value

$15.6

PnL

-$7.02

Record

37%

216-374 (590)

38791873984189<$100

Suns

Invested

$21.75

Value

$15

PnL

-$6.75

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Pan9X<$100

Suns

Invested

$47.61

Value

$10.76

PnL

+$2.04

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$10.8

Value

PnL

-$2.8

Record

50%

714-704 (1418)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

6 of 7 top traders (86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSuns 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.