Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (62%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 234.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 38¢ · $611 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 71%
$610.85
$35.09
39.7¢ → 38¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 38%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | Underavg 59¢ | $191.75 | $177.13 | -$14.63 | 3% 7-200 (207) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 39¢ | $108.7 | $126.82 | +$18.12 | 45% 262-316 (578) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 41¢ | $104.14 | $115.57 | +$11.43 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $80.34 | $93.73 | +$13.39 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 40.3¢ | $45.1 | $50.96 | +$5.86 | 48% 659-706 (1365) |
SU SunlineTicker<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $27.9 | $28.81 | +$0.91 | 70% 1671-716 (2387) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $17.83 | $17.83 | -$0 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
Invested
$191.75
Value
$177.13
PnL
-$14.63
Record
3%
7-200 (207)
Invested
$108.7
Value
$126.82
PnL
+$18.12
Record
45%
262-316 (578)
Invested
$104.14
Value
$115.57
PnL
+$11.43
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Invested
$80.34
Value
$93.73
PnL
+$13.39
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$45.1
Value
$50.96
PnL
+$5.86
Record
48%
659-706 (1365)
Invested
$27.9
Value
$28.81
PnL
+$0.91
Record
70%
1671-716 (2387)
Invested
$17.83
Value
$17.83
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.