Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 63¢ · $899 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 80%
1 arb excluded
$898.66
$21.96
75.5¢ → 63¢
-17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 63%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 66.4¢ | $377.24 | $393.8 | +$16.56 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 66.4¢ | $291 | $289.08 | -$1.92 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 28¢ | $86.24 | $104.72 | +$18.48 | |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 29.7¢ | $157.56 | $196.02 | +$38.46 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 72¢ | $222.01 | $145.14 | +$4.07 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
65 6512395314597884 | Overavg 79¢ | $158 | $136 | -$22 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 72¢ | $22.1 | $23.76 | +$1.66 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 72¢ | $4.17 | $3.94 | -$0.23 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
Invested
$377.24
Value
$393.8
PnL
+$16.56
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$157.56
Value
$196.02
PnL
+$38.46
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$222.01
Value
$145.14
PnL
+$4.07
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$158
Value
$136
PnL
-$22
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$22.1
Value
$23.76
PnL
+$1.66
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$4.17
Value
$3.94
PnL
-$0.23
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.