Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 73¢ · $245 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 33%
$244.73
-$23.16
77.3¢ → 73¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 73%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 78¢ | $188.8 | $167.08 | -$21.72 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 21¢ | $49.24 | $46.85 | -$2.39 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
65 6512395314597884<$100 | Overavg 70¢ | $14.67 | $15.31 | +$0.64 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 21.4¢ | $7.58 | $7.13 | +$0.76 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 22¢ | $6.6 | $6 | -$0.6 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 22¢ | $2.2 | $2.35 | +$0.15 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
Invested
$188.8
Value
$167.08
PnL
-$21.72
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$49.24
Value
$46.85
PnL
-$2.39
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$14.67
Value
$15.31
PnL
+$0.64
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$7.58
Value
$7.13
PnL
+$0.76
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.6
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0.15
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.