Spread: Lakers (-7.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (75%) · Lakers at 72¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
4
Lakers 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$15.16
69.5¢ → 72¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 72%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bigbeliever | Lakersavg 68.7¢ | $508.84 | $526.11 | +$17.27 | 59% 17-12 (29) |
FL Flaznorp | Lakersavg 71¢ | $305.3 | $309.6 | +$4.3 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Lakersavg 71¢ | $182.34 | $123.04 | -$7.1 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 71¢ | $93.72 | $95.04 | +$1.32 | |
| └ Bucks leg | Bucksavg 31.6¢ | $31.65 | $28 | -$8.42 | |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 31.1¢ | $90.41 | $84.39 | -$6.02 | 31% 407-907 (1314) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Lakersavg 71¢ | $22.57 | $15.8 | -$0.39 | 49% 683-724 (1407) |
Invested
$508.84
Value
$526.11
PnL
+$17.27
Record
59%
17-12 (29)
Invested
$305.3
Value
$309.6
PnL
+$4.3
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$182.34
Value
$123.04
PnL
-$7.1
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
Both legs:
Invested
$90.41
Value
$84.39
PnL
-$6.02
Record
31%
407-907 (1314)
Invested
$22.57
Value
$15.8
PnL
-$0.39
Record
49%
683-724 (1407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.