Spread: Lakers (-6.5)

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (11%) · Lakers at 74¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 12

Lakers74¢Bucks26¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 11%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.7K

Combined PnL

$390.47

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers74%

Bucks27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers1 trader

Total Value$24.4K

Total Shares32,925

Combined PnL+$86.53

Bucks8 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares28,843

Combined PnL+$303.94

Lakers — 11%Bucks — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBucks 100% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Bucks 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bigbeliever	Lakersavg 73.7¢	$24.3K	$24.4K	+$86.53	65% 17-9 (26)
FO forecastication4CTR	Bucksavg 25.4¢	$4.1K	$4.5K	+$411.15	17% 43-211 (254)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Bucksavg 27.4¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$86.66	51% 1751-1707 (3458)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bucksavg 25.8¢	$677.51	$456.47	+$34.98	48% 1171-1252 (2423)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 25.8¢	$256.12	$263.17	+$28.4
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 71¢	$186.73	$193.31	+$6.57
SE sentrioCTR	Bucksavg 28.2¢	$417.5	$385.39	-$32.11	36% 315-551 (866)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Bucksavg 25.2¢	$317.05	$327.56	+$10.51	39% 136-215 (351)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Bucksavg 28¢	$37.8	$37.8	+$0	30% 354-813 (1167)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Bucksavg 27¢	$29.7	$30.76	+$1.06	68% 1629-776 (2405)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Bucksavg 28¢	$1.4	$1.4	-$0	29% 351-840 (1191)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Bucksavg 28¢	$1.35	$1.35	-$0	30% 350-836 (1186)

bigbeliever

Lakers

Invested

$24,277.94

Value

$24.4K

PnL

+$86.53

Record

65%

17-9 (26)

forecastication4CTR

Bucks

Invested

$4,128.09

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$411.15

Record

17%

43-211 (254)

FlaznorpCTR

Bucks

Invested

$2,634

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$86.66

Record

51%

1751-1707 (3458)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$677.51

Value

$456.47

PnL

+$34.98

Record

48%

1171-1252 (2423)

Both legs:

Bucks$256.1225.8¢+$28.4

Lakers$186.7371¢+$6.57

sentrioCTR

Bucks

Invested

$417.5

Value

$385.39

PnL

-$32.11

Record

36%

315-551 (866)

LuckyLooCTR

Bucks

Invested

$317.05

Value

$327.56

PnL

+$10.51

Record

39%

136-215 (351)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$37.8

Value

$37.8

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

354-813 (1167)

RLWGCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$29.7

Value

$30.76

PnL

+$1.06

Record

68%

1629-776 (2405)

LimousinCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0

Record

29%

351-840 (1191)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0

Record

30%

350-836 (1186)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBucks 100% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Bucks 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.