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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Lakers — but Bucks won instead.

Spread: Lakers (-17.5)

Resolved Bucks. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Lakers. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Lakers 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lakers0%

Bucks100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,894

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Bucks4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,456

Combined PnL+$790.1

Lakers — 56%Bucks — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Bucksavg 56.5¢	$4.2K	$6.2K	+$2.0K	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 56.5¢	$3.5K	$6.2K	+$2.7K
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 58¢	$665.46	—	-$665.46
saintaphextwinCTR	Lakersavg 41¢	$2.3K	—	$-2.3K	3% 5-179 (184)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Bucksavg 42¢	$505.82	$1.2K	+$698.52	53% 305-275 (580)
TA takeormakeCTR	Lakersavg 57.9¢	$394.57	—	-$394.57	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
SU suntoriCTR	Lakersavg 39.5¢	$137.22	—	-$137.22	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Lakersavg 59¢	$150.45	—	-$150.45	39% 233-367 (600)
nigiri99	Bucksavg 59¢	$97.94	$166	+$68.06	52% 235-217 (452)
RN1CTR<$100	Lakersavg 46¢	$25.56	—	-$25.56	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Bucksavg 62¢	$40.15	$64.75	+$24.6	47% 350-393 (743)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Bucksavg 59¢	$79.08	$21	-$1.08	49% 973-998 (1971)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$4,154.07

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Both legs:

Bucks$3,488.6156.5¢+$2.7K

Lakers$665.4658¢-$665.46

saintaphextwinCTR

Invested

$2,277.52

Value

—

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

3%

5-179 (184)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Invested

$505.82

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$698.52

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

Invested

$394.57

Value

—

PnL

-$394.57

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

Invested

$137.22

Value

—

PnL

-$137.22

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

justaluckydudeCTR

Invested

$150.45

Value

—

PnL

-$150.45

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

Invested

$97.94

Value

$166

PnL

+$68.06

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

Invested

$25.56

Value

—

PnL

-$25.56

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Invested

$40.15

Value

$64.75

PnL

+$24.6

Record

47%

350-393 (743)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$79.08

Value

$21

PnL

-$1.08

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xdac5ebfd...d94e32

Slug

nba-lal-mil-2026-11-11-spread-away-17pt5

Traders in this Market

Flaznorp

Arbitrage — excluded

saintaphextwin

Lakers — $0

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Bucks — $1.2K

takeormake

Lakers — $0

suntori

Lakers — $0

justaluckydude

Lakers — $0

nigiri99

Bucks — $166

RN1

Lakers — $0

SnakeBall

Bucks — $64.75

ferdinand2

Bucks — $21

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