Spread: Lakers (-12.5)
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (44%) · Lakers at 52¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
9
Lakers 44%
$6.0K
-$3.3
49.6¢ → 51.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
44% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AP AppleTiiime | Lakersavg 48.9¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$87.16 | 52% 86-78 (164) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Bucksavg 51¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$89.74 | 57% 3221-2429 (5650) |
73 739633786CTR | Bucksavg 49¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$12.06 | 6% 11-189 (200) |
RJ RJW1 | Lakersavg 51¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$10.71 | 47% 118-132 (250) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 48¢ | $54.62 | $55.19 | +$0.57 | 52% 441-414 (855) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Lakersavg 51¢ | $48.45 | $48.93 | +$0.48 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 49¢ | $21.5 | $21.06 | -$0.44 | 60% 3476-2366 (5842) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Lakersavg 51¢ | $12.75 | $12.88 | +$0.13 | 48% 654-705 (1359) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.4 | -$0.1 | 31% 278-610 (888) |
Invested
$2,006.45
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$87.16
Record
52%
86-78 (164)
Invested
$1,580.49
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$89.74
Record
57%
3221-2429 (5650)
Invested
$1,181.88
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$12.06
Record
6%
11-189 (200)
Invested
$1,092.1
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10.71
Record
47%
118-132 (250)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$54.62
Value
$55.19
PnL
+$0.57
Record
52%
441-414 (855)
Invested
$48.45
Value
$48.93
PnL
+$0.48
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
Invested
$21.5
Value
$21.06
PnL
-$0.44
Record
60%
3476-2366 (5842)
Invested
$12.75
Value
$12.88
PnL
+$0.13
Record
48%
654-705 (1359)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$0.1
Record
31%
278-610 (888)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.