Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Lakers (64%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Lakers (-10.5)
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (100%) · Bucks at 37¢ · $161 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
7
Bucks 100%
$161.18
-$23.83
41.4¢ → 36.5¢
-12% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 37%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 64%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Bucksavg 42¢ | $137.12 | $117.53 | -$19.59 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 42¢ | $29.82 | $25.56 | -$4.26 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 35¢ | $8.75 | $9.13 | +$0.38 | 30% 401-920 (1321) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 38¢ | $4.37 | $4.14 | -$0.23 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 36¢ | $2.52 | $2.55 | +$0.03 | 47% 299-342 (641) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 38¢ | $1.9 | $1.8 | -$0.1 | 39% 394-619 (1013) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 41¢ | $0.54 | $0.47 | -$0.07 | 52% 497-452 (949) |
Invested
$137.12
Value
$117.53
PnL
-$19.59
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Invested
$29.82
Value
$25.56
PnL
-$4.26
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
Invested
$8.75
Value
$9.13
PnL
+$0.38
Record
30%
401-920 (1321)
Invested
$4.37
Value
$4.14
PnL
-$0.23
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Invested
$2.52
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0.03
Record
47%
299-342 (641)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$0.1
Record
39%
394-619 (1013)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.47
PnL
-$0.07
Record
52%
497-452 (949)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.