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YesYesNoNo
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100NoNoNo
poshposhCTR<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 29.5
Resolved Yes. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
No 75%
Total Value
$44.31
Combined PnL
-$94.23
Smart Money Signal
No
6 of 8 top traders (75%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$44.31
Total Shares44
Combined PnL+$13.01
No6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares392
Combined PnL-$107.24
Yes — 25%No — 75%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Yesavg 72¢ | $17.5 | $24.31 | +$6.81 | 65% 127-67 (194) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $13.8 | $20 | +$6.2 | 62% 1349-816 (2165) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $6.8 | — | -$6.8 | 60% 2805-1885 (4690) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $23.52 | — | -$23.52 | 24% 78-247 (325) |
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $23.24 | — | -$23.24 | 14% 39-249 (288) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 24.2¢ | $10.39 | — | -$10.39 | 47% 1785-2006 (3791) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Noavg 27.7¢ | $13.29 | — | -$13.29 | 47% 847-942 (1789) |
poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $30 | — | -$30 | 48% 505-558 (1063) |
TH
thatsabing0<$100Invested
$17.5
Value
$24.31
PnL
+$6.81
Record
65%
127-67 (194)
SH
shiifoo<$100Invested
$13.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$6.2
Record
62%
1349-816 (2165)
0X
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100Invested
$6.8
Value
—
PnL
-$6.8
Record
60%
2805-1885 (4690)
FO
forecastication4CTR<$100Invested
$23.52
Value
—
PnL
-$23.52
Record
24%
78-247 (325)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$23.24
Value
—
PnL
-$23.24
Record
14%
39-249 (288)
38
38791873984189CTR<$100Invested
$10.39
Value
—
PnL
-$10.39
Record
47%
1785-2006 (3791)
PA
Pan9XCTR<$100Invested
$13.29
Value
—
PnL
-$13.29
Record
47%
847-942 (1789)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$30
Value
—
PnL
-$30
Record
48%
505-558 (1063)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x6394dbbe...4f4773
Slug
nba-lal-mil-2026-11-11-points-luka-doncic-29pt5