Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (14%) · Over at 55¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31

Over55¢Under45¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 14%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

-$38.39

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 7 top traders (14%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,144

Combined PnL-$103.6

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,981

Combined PnL+$65.2

Over — 14%Under — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IC ic4cream	Overavg 52¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$103.6	59% 2626-1844 (4470)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$63.46	54% 17024-14269 (31293)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$74.38
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.5¢	$572.7	$583.61	+$10.91
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 47¢	$469.96	$504.95	+$35	53% 5558-4922 (10480)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 54¢	$336.18	$329.11	-$7.07	—
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$170.1	$171.68	+$1.58
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$166.08	$157.43	-$8.65
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47¢	$235	$252.5	+$17.5	58% 41361-29991 (71352)
D1 0xd106...c79cCTR	Underavg 48¢	$204.9	$215.57	+$10.67	54% 3276-2828 (6104)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 46.5¢	$18.12	$19.09	+$0.97	58% 28303-20884 (49187)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$9.2	$10.1	+$0.9	55% 7013-5629 (12642)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$3.18	$3.34	+$0.17	57% 13427-10262 (23689)

ic4cream

Over

Invested

$2,154.86

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$103.6

Record

59%

2626-1844 (4470)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,000.7

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$63.46

Record

54%

17024-14269 (31293)

Both legs:

Under$1,42848¢-$74.38

Over$572.753.5¢+$10.91

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$469.96

Value

$504.95

PnL

+$35

Record

53%

5558-4922 (10480)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$336.18

Value

$329.11

PnL

-$7.07

Record

—

Both legs:

Over$170.154¢+$1.58

Under$166.0848¢-$8.65

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$235

Value

$252.5

PnL

+$17.5

Record

58%

41361-29991 (71352)

0xd106...c79cCTR

Under

Invested

$204.9

Value

$215.57

PnL

+$10.67

Record

54%

3276-2828 (6104)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.12

Value

$19.09

PnL

+$0.97

Record

58%

28303-20884 (49187)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.2

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$0.9

Record

55%

7013-5629 (12642)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.18

Value

$3.34

PnL

+$0.17

Record

57%

13427-10262 (23689)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 7 top traders (14%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.