Lakers vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (18%) · Under at 56¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 8

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 18%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$96.29

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 56.5¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 11 top traders (18%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares7,545

Combined PnL+$116.32

Over9 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares7,323

Combined PnL-$20.03

Under — 18%Over — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Underavg 51.9¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$109.88	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48.2¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$0.35	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 48¢	$736.69	$342.56	-$11.05	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$288.84	$282.61	-$6.22	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$140.86	$142.18	+$1.33
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$147.98	$140.43	-$7.55
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$525	$256.38	-$4.38	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$168	$162.75	-$5.25
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$92.75	$93.63	+$0.88
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 55¢	$236.03	$242.47	+$6.44	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 45¢	$180	$174	-$6	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 46.5¢	$500	$78.29	+$0	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$34.36	$31.8	-$2.56	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 47.7¢	$57.98	$30.69	-$0.59	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$65.64	$30.52	+$0.33	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$20.68	$20.46	-$0.22	48% 3580-3942 (7522)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 47.6¢	$25	$11.63	-$0.27	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$3,697.18

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$109.88

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$2,701.13

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$0.35

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$736.69

Value

$342.56

PnL

-$11.05

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$288.84

Value

$282.61

PnL

-$6.22

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Both legs:

Under$140.8653¢+$1.33

Over$147.9849¢-$7.55

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$525

Value

$256.38

PnL

-$4.38

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

Invested

$236.03

Value

$242.47

PnL

+$6.44

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$180

Value

$174

PnL

-$6

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$78.29

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.36

Value

$31.8

PnL

-$2.56

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57.98

Value

$30.69

PnL

-$0.59

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$65.64

Value

$30.52

PnL

+$0.33

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.68

Value

$20.46

PnL

-$0.22

Record

48%

3580-3942 (7522)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25

Value

$11.63

PnL

-$0.27

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 11 top traders (18%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.