Lakers vs. Pistons: O/U 221.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (31%) · Under at 58¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 8

Over42¢Under58¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 31%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$167.28

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 58¢

+15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 13 top traders (31%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares10,125

Combined PnL+$282.4

Over9 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares7,578

Combined PnL-$115.11

Under — 31%Over — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Underavg 49.9¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$116.29	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 43.5¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$62.5	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 51.3¢	$985.99	$1.1K	+$119.45	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
KA KasonWong	Underavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$20	49% 27-28 (55)
73 739633786CTR	Overavg 49¢	$490	$480	-$10	44% 442-560 (1002)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 49¢	$931.04	$446.9	-$9.26	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 54¢	$359.83	$386.48	+$26.65	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 50.5¢	$372.9	$366.54	-$6.36	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$182	$185.64	+$1.86
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.5¢	$190.36	$180.9	-$8.22
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$492.7	$355.81	+$11.3	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$202.7	$198.56	+$8.27
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$154.23	$157.25	+$3.02
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$585.05	$294.82	-$1.75	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$178.5	$182	+$3.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.2¢	$118.06	$112.82	-$5.25
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 48¢	$192	$170	-$22	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$54.72	$52.23	-$2.49	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 52¢	$327.83	$37.36	-$3.11	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 48.7¢	$14.6	$12.6	-$2	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 48.5¢	$23.64	$10.24	-$2.68	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$9.97	$9.22	-$1.08	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$2,762.95

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$116.29

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$2,280.2

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$62.5

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$985.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$119.45

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

KasonWong

Under

Invested

$1,019.64

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$20

Record

49%

27-28 (55)

739633786CTR

Over

Invested

$490

Value

$480

PnL

-$10

Record

44%

442-560 (1002)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$931.04

Value

$446.9

PnL

-$9.26

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$359.83

Value

$386.48

PnL

+$26.65

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$372.9

Value

$366.54

PnL

-$6.36

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Both legs:

Under$18251¢+$1.86

Over$190.3650.5¢-$8.22

SnakeBallARB<$100

Over

Invested

$492.7

Value

$355.81

PnL

+$11.3

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Both legs:

Over$202.749¢+$8.27

Under$154.2351¢+$3.02

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$585.05

Value

$294.82

PnL

-$1.75

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

Under$178.551¢+$3.5

Over$118.0650.2¢-$5.25

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$192

Value

$170

PnL

-$22

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.72

Value

$52.23

PnL

-$2.49

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$327.83

Value

$37.36

PnL

-$3.11

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.6

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.64

Value

$10.24

PnL

-$2.68

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.97

Value

$9.22

PnL

-$1.08

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 13 top traders (31%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.