Lakers vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$27.06

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 56.5¢

+17% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,169

Combined PnL+$29.49

Over5 traders

Total Value$597.05

Total Shares1,289

Combined PnL-$56.54

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 45.6¢	$838.62	$850.26	+$11.64	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
nigiri99	Underavg 52.5¢	$550.29	$560.68	+$10.39	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
TH TheComboConnoisseurCTR	Overavg 52¢	$520	$465	-$55	53% 1279-1143 (2422)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 48¢	$232.28	$225.94	-$6.33	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$400	$200	+$0	56% 195-151 (346)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$107	+$7
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$93	-$7
MA MadridTime	Underavg 48¢	$251.76	$134.69	+$13.85	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Overavg 44.8¢	$52.28	$51.91	-$0.37	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$36.8	$37.2	+$0.4	49% 516-547 (1063)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 48.4¢	$48.74	$22.66	-$0.92	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$20.93	$20.27	-$0.65	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 47¢	$4.6	$5	-$0.05	52% 9497-8605 (18102)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$838.62

Value

$850.26

PnL

+$11.64

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$550.29

Value

$560.68

PnL

+$10.39

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

TheComboConnoisseurCTR

Over

Invested

$520

Value

$465

PnL

-$55

Record

53%

1279-1143 (2422)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$232.28

Value

$225.94

PnL

-$6.33

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

Both legs:

Invested

$251.76

Value

$134.69

PnL

+$13.85

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

NM-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.28

Value

$51.91

PnL

-$0.37

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.8

Value

$37.2

PnL

+$0.4

Record

49%

516-547 (1063)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48.74

Value

$22.66

PnL

-$0.92

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.93

Value

$20.27

PnL

-$0.65

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$4.6

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.