Lakers vs. Pistons: O/U 217.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$3.8

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 52.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares7,363

Combined PnL+$7.85

Over3 traders

Total Value$426.93

Total Shares884

Combined PnL-$4.05

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	Underavg 54.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$68.02	49% 493-510 (1003)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51.4¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$68.97	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 48.6¢	$326.52	$320.15	-$6.38	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 46.2¢	$96.66	$99.31	+$2.65	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 47¢	$48	$50.5	+$2.5	47% 2130-2385 (4515)
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 40¢	$16.8	$21.21	+$4.41	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$7.8	$7.48	-$0.33	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 42¢	$2.55	$2.53	-$0.03	52% 9515-8627 (18142)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 43.2¢	$2.16	$2.5	-$0.03	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 52¢	$1.18	$1.21	+$0.03	57% 24685-18276 (42961)

Pwaddler

Under

Invested

$2,148.66

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$68.02

Record

49%

493-510 (1003)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,721.81

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$68.97

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$326.52

Value

$320.15

PnL

-$6.38

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$96.66

Value

$99.31

PnL

+$2.65

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$48

Value

$50.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

47%

2130-2385 (4515)

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$16.8

Value

$21.21

PnL

+$4.41

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$0.33

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$1.18

Value

$1.21

PnL

+$0.03

Record

57%

24685-18276 (42961)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.