Spread: Pistons (-3.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (22%) · Pistons at 63¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 8

Pistons63¢Lakers37¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 22%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.0K

Combined PnL

$192.69

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 62.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

2 of 9 top traders (22%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons63%

Lakers38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons2 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares19,743

Combined PnL+$277.13

Lakers7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,710

Combined PnL-$84.44

Pistons — 22%Lakers — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pistons) and the top 1000 (8 on Lakers) disagree here.

ctrLakers 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedPistons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
yabanci	Pistonsavg 61¢	$10.4K	$10.6K	+$255	51% 99-96 (195)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Lakersavg 41.5¢	$12.5K	$6.6K	-$351.54	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 41.5¢	$3.9K	$3.6K	-$378.55
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 57.7¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$27.02
VeryLucky888	Pistonsavg 60.2¢	$3.8K	$2.1K	+$22.13	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Lakersavg 41.2¢	$4.6K	$2.0K	-$125.64	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 41.2¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$138.85
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 61¢	$537.17	$550.47	+$13.21
NM NM-PARB<$100	Pistonsavg 59¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	+$37.11	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 59¢	$619.5	$656.25	+$36.75
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 41.9¢	$600.75	$537.28	+$0.36
GC GC-PARB<$100	Pistonsavg 59¢	$2.5K	$1.2K	-$24.5	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 59¢	$619.5	$656.25	+$36.75
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 41.9¢	$586.18	$525	-$61.25
nigiri99ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 60.1¢	$908.58	$913.38	+$4.8	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 60.1¢	$660.83	$686.88	+$25.94
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 41¢	$247.64	$226.5	-$21.14
HI hi774cCTR	Lakersavg 42¢	$1.2K	$467.81	-$56.14	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Lakersavg 40.3¢	$1.1K	$389.07	-$17.22	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 40.3¢	$246.8	$229.54	-$17.27
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 62.9¢	$160.67	$159.53	+$0.05
SE sentrioCTR	Lakersavg 40¢	$344.01	$325.58	-$18.43	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Lakersavg 37¢	$245	$91.88	+$1.23	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
PA Pan9XCTR	Lakersavg 40.8¢	$175	$64.25	-$5.09	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Lakersavg 44.5¢	$54.5	$52.13	-$2.37	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Lakersavg 41¢	$38.21	$34.95	-$3.26	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Lakersavg 39¢	$9.75	$9.37	-$0.37	49% 8555-8731 (17286)

yabanci

Pistons

Invested

$10,370

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$255

Record

51%

99-96 (195)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$12,483.54

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$351.54

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Both legs:

Lakers$3,930.9741.5¢-$378.55

Pistons$2,800.9557.7¢+$27.02

VeryLucky888

Pistons

Invested

$3,766.81

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$22.13

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$4,632.71

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$125.64

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

Both legs:

Lakers$1,545.841.2¢-$138.85

Pistons$537.1761¢+$13.21

NM-PARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$1,586.92

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$37.11

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

Both legs:

Pistons$619.559¢+$36.75

Lakers$600.7541.9¢+$0.36

GC-PARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$2,450

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$24.5

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

Both legs:

Pistons$619.559¢+$36.75

Lakers$586.1841.9¢-$61.25

nigiri99ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$908.58

Value

$913.38

PnL

+$4.8

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

Both legs:

Pistons$660.8360.1¢+$25.94

Lakers$247.6441¢-$21.14

hi774cCTR

Lakers

Invested

$1,247.49

Value

$467.81

PnL

-$56.14

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$1,066.48

Value

$389.07

PnL

-$17.22

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

Lakers$246.840.3¢-$17.27

Pistons$160.6762.9¢+$0.05

sentrioCTR

Lakers

Invested

$344.01

Value

$325.58

PnL

-$18.43

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Lakers

Invested

$245

Value

$91.88

PnL

+$1.23

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

Pan9XCTR

Lakers

Invested

$175

Value

$64.25

PnL

-$5.09

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$54.5

Value

$52.13

PnL

-$2.37

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

LimousinCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$38.21

Value

$34.95

PnL

-$3.26

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

RLWGCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$9.75

Value

$9.37

PnL

-$0.37

Record

49%

8555-8731 (17286)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

2 of 9 top traders (22%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pistons) and the top 1000 (8 on Lakers) disagree here.

ctrLakers 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedPistons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.