Spread: Pistons (-2.5)

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (40%) · Pistons at 65¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 8

Pistons65¢Lakers35¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 40%

Total Value

$14.8K

Combined PnL

-$288.12

Smart Money Entry

62.7¢ → 65¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons65%

Lakers35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons6 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares16,459

Combined PnL+$99.55

Lakers9 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares10,642

Combined PnL-$387.67

Pistons — 40%Lakers — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pistons) and the top 1000 (14 on Lakers) disagree here.

whalePistons 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrLakers 67% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedPistons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 64% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Pistonsavg 62.8¢	$5.9K	$5.3K	-$33.51	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
FL Flaznorp	Pistonsavg 63.9¢	$5.6K	$3.6K	+$85.96	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
HI hi774cCTR	Lakersavg 37.2¢	$6.4K	$2.2K	-$176.73	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Lakersavg 41.9¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$191.49	54% 5360-4574 (9934)
HO HomeRunHazard	Pistonsavg 58¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0.21	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
PU purplegatto	Pistonsavg 64¢	$847.48	$873.89	+$26.4	49% 6674-6872 (13546)
nigiri99	Pistonsavg 59.1¢	$185.56	$205.67	+$20.11	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Lakersavg 42.4¢	$58.4	$54.33	-$4.06	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Lakersavg 36¢	$47.16	$45.2	-$1.97	47% 1624-1831 (3455)
38 38791873984189CTR	Lakersavg 37.5¢	$606	$36.57	-$3.17	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Lakersavg 38¢	$100	$34.5	-$3.5	53% 14327-12638 (26965)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Lakersavg 39¢	$33.14	$28.95	-$4.2	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
PA Pan9XCTR	Lakersavg 39¢	$151	$26.39	-$2.62	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Lakersavg 34¢	$14	$4.83	+$0.07	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Pistonsavg 58¢	$5	$3.28	+$0.38	52% 9497-8605 (18102)

VeryLucky888

Pistons

Invested

$5,914.91

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$33.51

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

Flaznorp

Pistons

Invested

$5,559.86

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$85.96

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

hi774cCTR

Lakers

Invested

$6,438.45

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$176.73

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

SunlineTickerCTR

Lakers

Invested

$1,414.06

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$191.49

Record

54%

5360-4574 (9934)

HomeRunHazard

Pistons

Invested

$1,134.83

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

purplegatto

Pistons

Invested

$847.48

Value

$873.89

PnL

+$26.4

Record

49%

6674-6872 (13546)

nigiri99

Pistons

Invested

$185.56

Value

$205.67

PnL

+$20.11

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$58.4

Value

$54.33

PnL

-$4.06

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$47.16

Value

$45.2

PnL

-$1.97

Record

47%

1624-1831 (3455)

38791873984189CTR

Lakers

Invested

$606

Value

$36.57

PnL

-$3.17

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

BoomLaLaCTR

Lakers

Invested

$100

Value

$34.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

53%

14327-12638 (26965)

sentrioCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$33.14

Value

$28.95

PnL

-$4.2

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

Pan9XCTR

Lakers

Invested

$151

Value

$26.39

PnL

-$2.62

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$14

Value

$4.83

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

ameisgoat11<$100

Pistons

Invested

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$0.38

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pistons) and the top 1000 (14 on Lakers) disagree here.

whalePistons 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrLakers 67% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedPistons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 64% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.