Spread: Pistons (-1.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (56%) · Pistons at 68¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 8

Pistons68¢Lakers32¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

-$308.25

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 67.5¢

+11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons68%

Lakers33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons5 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares7,327

Combined PnL+$501.8

Lakers4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares6,576

Combined PnL-$810.05

Pistons — 56%Lakers — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePistons 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPistons 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Pistons 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Pistonsavg 60.5¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$274.76	54% 5365-4576 (9941)
HI hi774cCTR	Lakersavg 45¢	$2.9K	$2.1K	-$804.35	46% 5627-6537 (12164)
RO ropetard	Pistonsavg 63.4¢	$923.39	$950.71	+$59.28	65% 114-62 (176)
nigiri99	Pistonsavg 59¢	$616.94	$705.38	+$88.44	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
FL Flaznorp	Pistonsavg 59.1¢	$907.31	$612.43	+$76.25	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Pistonsavg 59.5¢	$116.78	$119.03	+$2.25	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 59.5¢	$80.44	$91.27	+$10.82
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 42.5¢	$36.33	$27.76	-$8.57
BA Bayupati<$100	Pistonsavg 61¢	$28.8	$31.87	+$3.07	48% 281-299 (580)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Lakersavg 37¢	$31.55	$27.71	-$3.84	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
PA Pan9XCTR	Lakersavg 36.4¢	$157	$15.2	-$0.2	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
38 38791873984189CTR	Lakersavg 38¢	$328	$9.75	-$1.67	48% 70290-75979 (146269)

SunlineTicker

Pistons

Invested

$2,370.7

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$274.76

Record

54%

5365-4576 (9941)

hi774cCTR

Lakers

Invested

$2,895.66

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$804.35

Record

46%

5627-6537 (12164)

ropetard

Pistons

Invested

$923.39

Value

$950.71

PnL

+$59.28

Record

65%

114-62 (176)

nigiri99

Pistons

Invested

$616.94

Value

$705.38

PnL

+$88.44

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

Flaznorp

Pistons

Invested

$907.31

Value

$612.43

PnL

+$76.25

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$116.78

Value

$119.03

PnL

+$2.25

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

Both legs:

Pistons$80.4459.5¢+$10.82

Lakers$36.3342.5¢-$8.57

Bayupati<$100

Pistons

Invested

$28.8

Value

$31.87

PnL

+$3.07

Record

48%

281-299 (580)

sentrioCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$31.55

Value

$27.71

PnL

-$3.84

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

Pan9XCTR

Lakers

Invested

$157

Value

$15.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

38791873984189CTR

Lakers

Invested

$328

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$1.67

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePistons 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPistons 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Pistons 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.