Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Lakers vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 49¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 10

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

$51.02

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 48.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares9,246

Combined PnL+$39.33

Under3 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,243

Combined PnL+$11.69

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48.1¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$39.31	54% 20342-17178 (37520)
nigiri99	Underavg 52.4¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$26.29	45% 14909-18248 (33157)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$14	57% 22821-16910 (39731)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$714	$721	+$7
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$672	$679	+$7
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.44	57% 22672-16911 (39583)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$672	$679	+$7
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$657.09	$663.53	+$6.44
KA KasonWong	Underavg 50¢	$999.98	$1.0K	+$30.02	49% 31-32 (63)
nehcnehc	Underavg 51¢	$811.75	$819.71	+$7.96	61% 4534-2843 (7377)
RN1CTR	Overavg 48.5¢	$500	$237.5	-$5	53% 72121-63608 (135729)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 47.3¢	$184.55	$189.39	+$4.84	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$74.28	$36.03	+$0.37	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 48.2¢	$22.72	$11.02	+$0.06	57% 25537-19073 (44610)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$16.76	$8.13	-$0.25	45% 2751-3326 (6077)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$4,327.86

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$39.31

Record

54%

20342-17178 (37520)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,587.01

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$26.29

Record

45%

14909-18248 (33157)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,386

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$14

Record

57%

22821-16910 (39731)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,329.09

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.44

Record

57%

22672-16911 (39583)

Both legs:

Over$67248¢+$7

Under$657.0951¢+$6.44

KasonWong

Under

Invested

$999.98

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$30.02

Record

49%

31-32 (63)

nehcnehc

Under

Invested

$811.75

Value

$819.71

PnL

+$7.96

Record

61%

4534-2843 (7377)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$237.5

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

72121-63608 (135729)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$184.55

Value

$189.39

PnL

+$4.84

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$74.28

Value

$36.03

PnL

+$0.37

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.72

Value

$11.02

PnL

+$0.06

Record

57%

25537-19073 (44610)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.76

Value

$8.13

PnL

-$0.25

Record

45%

2751-3326 (6077)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.