Lakers vs. Hawks: O/U 235.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 52¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 10

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$23.7

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 51.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares10,412

Combined PnL+$152.83

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares8,145

Combined PnL-$129.13

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 50¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$140.13	30% 29-67 (96)
nehcnehcCTR	Underavg 50¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$87.72	8% 2-23 (25)
PL plustiCTR	Underavg 50.2¢	$1.0K	$966.04	-$33.96	14% 3-18 (21)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 49.6¢	$433.58	$443.03	+$9.46	5% 11-190 (201)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.6¢	$286.84	$297.8	+$10.96
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$146.73	$145.23	-$1.5
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 49.7¢	$351.12	$359.91	+$8.8	6% 11-164 (175)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.7¢	$260.75	$270.38	+$9.63
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.9¢	$90.37	$89.54	-$0.83
RN1	Overavg 50¢	$306.52	$316.71	+$10.19	54% 230-199 (429)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 51¢	$248.05	$250.48	+$2.43	30% 104-243 (347)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 51¢	$153.46	$145.99	-$7.47	43% 26-35 (61)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 50¢	$26.83	$27.16	+$0.32	53% 85-74 (159)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 51¢	$26	$25.75	-$0.25	30% 60-139 (199)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$1.85	$1.87	+$0.02	4% 9-248 (257)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$4,672.96

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$140.13

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

nehcnehcCTR

Under

Invested

$2,924

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$87.72

Record

2-23 (25)

plustiCTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$966.04

PnL

-$33.96

Record

14%

3-18 (21)

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$433.58

Value

$443.03

PnL

+$9.46

Record

11-190 (201)

Both legs:

Over$286.8449.6¢+$10.96

Under$146.7349¢-$1.5

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$351.12

Value

$359.91

PnL

+$8.8

Record

11-164 (175)

Both legs:

Over$260.7549.7¢+$9.63

Under$90.3748.9¢-$0.83

RN1

Over

Invested

$306.52

Value

$316.71

PnL

+$10.19

Record

54%

230-199 (429)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$248.05

Value

$250.48

PnL

+$2.43

Record

30%

104-243 (347)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$153.46

Value

$145.99

PnL

-$7.47

Record

43%

26-35 (61)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$26.83

Value

$27.16

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

85-74 (159)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$26

Value

$25.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

30%

60-139 (199)

hi774cCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.87

PnL

+$0.02

Record

9-248 (257)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.