Spread: Hawks (-3.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (63%) · Lakers at 57¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
8
Lakers 63%
$1.6K
$19.54
60¢ → 57.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LimousinCTR | Hawksavg 38.7¢ | $510.01 | $573.6 | +$63.59 | 46% 2861-3344 (6205) |
 RN1 | Lakersavg 61¢ | $499.99 | $282.49 | -$22.5 | 53% 72121-63608 (135729) |
VE VenusianCTR | Hawksavg 38¢ | $242 | $239.25 | -$2.75 | 45% 2826-3461 (6287) |
38 38791873984189 | Lakersavg 61.5¢ | $178.87 | $167.11 | -$11.75 | 48% 72298-78071 (150369) |
FL Flaznorp | Lakersavg 57¢ | $153.9 | $155.25 | +$1.35 | 52% 49773-46707 (96480) |
SE sentrio | Lakersavg 59.1¢ | $144.05 | $140.1 | -$3.95 | 51% 28897-28239 (57136) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Lakersavg 61.2¢ | $71.63 | $39.1 | -$4.6 | 53% 28460-25726 (54186) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Hawksavg 41¢ | $6 | $2.61 | +$0.15 | 54% 20342-17178 (37520) |
Invested
$510.01
Value
$573.6
PnL
+$63.59
Record
46%
2861-3344 (6205)
RN1Invested
$499.99
Value
$282.49
PnL
-$22.5
Record
53%
72121-63608 (135729)
Invested
$242
Value
$239.25
PnL
-$2.75
Record
45%
2826-3461 (6287)
Invested
$178.87
Value
$167.11
PnL
-$11.75
Record
48%
72298-78071 (150369)
Invested
$153.9
Value
$155.25
PnL
+$1.35
Record
52%
49773-46707 (96480)
Invested
$144.05
Value
$140.1
PnL
-$3.95
Record
51%
28897-28239 (57136)
Invested
$71.63
Value
$39.1
PnL
-$4.6
Record
53%
28460-25726 (54186)
Invested
$6
Value
$2.61
PnL
+$0.15
Record
54%
20342-17178 (37520)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.