Spread: Hawks (-2.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (67%) · Lakers at 54¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 10

Hawks47¢Lakers53¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 67%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$19.87

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 53.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hawks47%

Lakers54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,652

Combined PnL-$41.72

Hawks3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,846

Combined PnL+$21.85

Lakers — 67%Hawks — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrLakers 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Lakersavg 53.9¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$12.74	54% 20342-17178 (37520)
73 739633786CTR	Hawksavg 46.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$0.29	44% 452-565 (1017)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Hawksavg 43¢	$578	$268.77	+$20.23	45% 2751-3326 (6077)
38 38791873984189	Lakersavg 57¢	$164.16	$154.08	-$10.08	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
RN1	Lakersavg 57¢	$250	$133.75	-$8.75	53% 72121-63608 (135729)
nigiri99	Lakersavg 57¢	$142.5	$133.75	-$8.75	45% 14909-18248 (33157)
SE sentrio	Lakersavg 54¢	$220.46	$117.95	-$1.15	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Hawksavg 42¢	$42.61	$19.81	+$1.92	45% 2764-3372 (6136)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Lakersavg 56¢	$10	$5.35	-$0.25	53% 14841-13046 (27887)

HomeRunHazard

Lakers

Invested

$1,956.85

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$12.74

Record

54%

20342-17178 (37520)

739633786CTR

Hawks

Invested

$1,034.9

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$0.29

Record

44%

452-565 (1017)

LightParadoxCTR

Hawks

Invested

$578

Value

$268.77

PnL

+$20.23

Record

45%

2751-3326 (6077)

38791873984189

Lakers

Invested

$164.16

Value

$154.08

PnL

-$10.08

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

RN1

Lakers

Invested

$250

Value

$133.75

PnL

-$8.75

Record

53%

72121-63608 (135729)

nigiri99

Lakers

Invested

$142.5

Value

$133.75

PnL

-$8.75

Record

45%

14909-18248 (33157)

sentrio

Lakers

Invested

$220.46

Value

$117.95

PnL

-$1.15

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$42.61

Value

$19.81

PnL

+$1.92

Record

45%

2764-3372 (6136)

ameisgoat11<$100

Lakers

Invested

$10

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

14841-13046 (27887)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrLakers 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.