Spread: Hawks (-1.5)

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (25%) · Hawks at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 10

Hawks51¢Lakers49¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 25%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$4.19

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 50.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hawks51%

Lakers50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,864

Combined PnL+$48.09

Lakers9 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,545

Combined PnL-$52.28

Hawks — 25%Lakers — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IA ianf2026	Hawksavg 50.9¢	$859.03	$851.83	-$7.2	50% 134-136 (270)
LI Limousin	Hawksavg 46¢	$304.75	$334.56	+$29.81	46% 2861-3344 (6205)
MA MadridTime	Hawksavg 45.6¢	$515.12	$260.13	+$25.48	45% 2764-3372 (6136)
RN1CTR	Lakersavg 52¢	$500	$247.5	-$12.5	53% 72121-63608 (135729)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Lakersavg 52¢	$436.14	$215.89	-$10.9	54% 20342-17178 (37520)
38 38791873984189CTR	Lakersavg 54.4¢	$225.51	$205.19	-$20.32	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Lakersavg 50¢	$378	$187.11	-$1.89	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
NM NM-PCTR	Lakersavg 50¢	$350	$173.25	-$1.75	57% 22821-16910 (39731)
GC GC-PCTR	Lakersavg 50¢	$350	$173.25	-$1.75	57% 22672-16911 (39583)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Lakersavg 52.3¢	$97.67	$48.34	-$2.76	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Lakersavg 54¢	$10	$4.95	-$0.45	50% 8680-8849 (17529)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Lakersavg 49¢	$4.39	$4.44	+$0.04	50% 49324-48846 (98170)

ianf2026

Hawks

Invested

$859.03

Value

$851.83

PnL

-$7.2

Record

50%

134-136 (270)

Limousin

Hawks

Invested

$304.75

Value

$334.56

PnL

+$29.81

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

MadridTime

Hawks

Invested

$515.12

Value

$260.13

PnL

+$25.48

Record

45%

2764-3372 (6136)

RN1CTR

Lakers

Invested

$500

Value

$247.5

PnL

-$12.5

Record

53%

72121-63608 (135729)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Lakers

Invested

$436.14

Value

$215.89

PnL

-$10.9

Record

54%

20342-17178 (37520)

38791873984189CTR

Lakers

Invested

$225.51

Value

$205.19

PnL

-$20.32

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

FlaznorpCTR

Lakers

Invested

$378

Value

$187.11

PnL

-$1.89

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

NM-PCTR

Lakers

Invested

$350

Value

$173.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

57%

22821-16910 (39731)

GC-PCTR

Lakers

Invested

$350

Value

$173.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

57%

22672-16911 (39583)

sentrioCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$97.67

Value

$48.34

PnL

-$2.76

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

RLWGCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$10

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.45

Record

50%

8680-8849 (17529)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$4.39

Value

$4.44

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

49324-48846 (98170)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.