Spread: Lakers (-2.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (67%) · Hawks at 57¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 10

Lakers43¢Hawks57¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 67%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$33.29

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 57.5¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lakers43%

Hawks57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,497

Combined PnL+$36.95

Lakers3 traders

Total Value$140.41

Total Shares316

Combined PnL-$3.66

Hawks — 67%Lakers — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrHawks 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedHawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawks 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Hawksavg 51.8¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$4.3	54% 20342-17178 (37520)
nigiri99	Hawksavg 54.1¢	$222.72	$236.9	+$14.18	45% 14905-18242 (33147)
NM NM-P	Hawksavg 52¢	$182	$187.25	+$5.25	57% 22806-16903 (39709)
GC GC-P	Hawksavg 52¢	$350	$187.25	+$5.25	57% 22656-16901 (39557)
FL Flaznorp	Hawksavg 51¢	$313	$167.46	+$7.83	52% 49502-46467 (95969)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Lakersavg 44¢	$69.34	$66.99	-$2.35	51% 28824-28178 (57002)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Lakersavg 47¢	$62.04	$61.38	-$0.66	47% 3608-4014 (7622)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Lakersavg 49¢	$12.69	$12.04	-$0.65	45% 2757-3338 (6095)
0xheavy888<$100	Hawksavg 52¢	$5.2	$5.35	+$0.15	56% 9021-7117 (16138)

HomeRunHazard

Hawks

Invested

$2,168.72

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$4.3

Record

54%

20342-17178 (37520)

nigiri99

Hawks

Invested

$222.72

Value

$236.9

PnL

+$14.18

Record

45%

14905-18242 (33147)

NM-P

Hawks

Invested

$182

Value

$187.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

57%

22806-16903 (39709)

GC-P

Hawks

Invested

$350

Value

$187.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

57%

22656-16901 (39557)

Flaznorp

Hawks

Invested

$313

Value

$167.46

PnL

+$7.83

Record

52%

49502-46467 (95969)

sentrioCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$69.34

Value

$66.99

PnL

-$2.35

Record

51%

28824-28178 (57002)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$62.04

Value

$61.38

PnL

-$0.66

Record

47%

3608-4014 (7622)

VenusianCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$12.69

Value

$12.04

PnL

-$0.65

Record

45%

2757-3338 (6095)

0xheavy888<$100

Hawks

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.35

PnL

+$0.15

Record

56%

9021-7117 (16138)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrHawks 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedHawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawks 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.