Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lakers, while the market favors Hawks (56%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Lakers (-1.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (57%) · Lakers at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
7
Lakers 57%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$24.94
46.9¢ → 44.5¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Hawks 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Lakersavg 46.2¢ | $921.48 | $492.22 | -$12.81 | 54% 20342-17178 (37520) |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 46.2¢ | $357.08 | $344.23 | -$12.89 | |
| └ Hawks leg | Hawksavg 54.9¢ | $146.28 | $147.99 | +$0.08 | |
 RN1CTR | Lakersavg 47.5¢ | $1.0K | $460.51 | -$28.46 | 53% 72121-63608 (135729) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Hawksavg 53¢ | $589.62 | $327.24 | +$14.74 | 47% 2293-2595 (4888) |
SE sentrioCTR | Lakersavg 46.3¢ | $448.95 | $199.78 | -$8.18 | 51% 28858-28213 (57071) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Lakersavg 46¢ | $374 | $166.43 | -$5.61 | 52% 49669-46633 (96302) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Hawksavg 53¢ | $94.81 | $52.62 | +$2.37 | 52% 5800-5441 (11241) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Hawksavg 49¢ | $25.3 | $25.53 | +$0.23 | 45% 2826-3461 (6287) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Lakersavg 48.3¢ | $6.7 | $6.68 | -$0.03 | 53% 14841-13046 (27887) |
Invested
$921.48
Value
$492.22
PnL
-$12.81
Record
54%
20342-17178 (37520)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$1,027.94
Value
$460.51
PnL
-$28.46
Record
53%
72121-63608 (135729)
Invested
$589.62
Value
$327.24
PnL
+$14.74
Record
47%
2293-2595 (4888)
Invested
$448.95
Value
$199.78
PnL
-$8.18
Record
51%
28858-28213 (57071)
Invested
$374
Value
$166.43
PnL
-$5.61
Record
52%
49669-46633 (96302)
Invested
$94.81
Value
$52.62
PnL
+$2.37
Record
52%
5800-5441 (11241)
Invested
$25.3
Value
$25.53
PnL
+$0.23
Record
45%
2826-3461 (6287)
Invested
$6.7
Value
$6.68
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
14841-13046 (27887)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.