Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 225.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 71%
$1.7K
$27.24
50.9¢ → 51.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 51¢ | $601.4 | $613.09 | +$11.68 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 nehcnehcCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $488.44 | $493.53 | +$5.09 | 19% 13-57 (70) |
HI hi774c | Underavg 50¢ | $311.39 | $323.85 | +$12.46 | 8% 37-420 (457) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 52¢ | $130 | $128.75 | -$1.25 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 52¢ | $129.78 | $128.53 | -$1.25 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 47.7¢ | $18.05 | $18.16 | +$0.11 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $10 | $10.4 | +$0.4 | 56% 108-86 (194) |
Invested
$601.4
Value
$613.09
PnL
+$11.68
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
nehcnehcCTRInvested
$488.44
Value
$493.53
PnL
+$5.09
Record
19%
13-57 (70)
Invested
$311.39
Value
$323.85
PnL
+$12.46
Record
8%
37-420 (457)
VeryLucky888Invested
$130
Value
$128.75
PnL
-$1.25
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
Invested
$129.78
Value
$128.53
PnL
-$1.25
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$18.05
Value
$18.16
PnL
+$0.11
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$10
Value
$10.4
PnL
+$0.4
Record
56%
108-86 (194)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.