Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 224.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 50¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
$1.0K
$10.76
49.9¢ → 50¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JO JoeyAroyyOO | Overavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 49% 95-99 (194) |
KA KasonWong | Underavg 49¢ | $299.57 | $299.57 | -$0 | 12% 3-22 (25) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 47.2¢ | $152.74 | $161.81 | +$9.07 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $18.13 | $18.5 | +$0.37 | 48% 420-450 (870) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $64.87 | $17.18 | +$1.32 | 49% 231-238 (469) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $11.1 | $11.1 | -$0 | 48% 840-912 (1752) |
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
95-99 (194)
Invested
$299.57
Value
$299.57
PnL
-$0
Record
12%
3-22 (25)
Invested
$152.74
Value
$161.81
PnL
+$9.07
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$18.13
Value
$18.5
PnL
+$0.37
Record
48%
420-450 (870)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$64.87
Value
$17.18
PnL
+$1.32
Record
49%
231-238 (469)
Invested
$11.1
Value
$11.1
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
840-912 (1752)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.