Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 212.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 65¢ · $607 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 75%
2 arb excluded
$606.7
$23.95
55.2¢ → 64.5¢
+17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 65%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $166.22 | $164.89 | -$1.33 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 45¢ | $103.45 | $108.1 | +$4.65 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 58.6¢ | $62.77 | $56.79 | -$5.98 | |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 44.2¢ | $225.71 | $155.08 | -$11.54 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 55¢ | $65.21 | $77.63 | +$10.17 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 44.2¢ | $99.16 | $77.45 | -$21.71 | |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375 | Overavg 56¢ | $112 | $131 | +$19 | 54% 217-188 (405) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $88 | $94 | +$6 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $59.08 | $59.08 | +$0 | 54% 1660-1438 (3098) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $2.65 | -$1.05 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
Invested
$166.22
Value
$164.89
PnL
-$1.33
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Both legs:
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$225.71
Value
$155.08
PnL
-$11.54
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Both legs:
Invested
$112
Value
$131
PnL
+$19
Record
54%
217-188 (405)
Invested
$88
Value
$94
PnL
+$6
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
Invested
$59.08
Value
$59.08
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
1660-1438 (3098)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$1.05
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.