Spread: Suns (-6.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (50%) · Suns at 69¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Suns
6
Suns 50%
$1.5K
$58.74
46.5¢ → 68.5¢
+47% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidSuns at 69%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Sunsavg 45.9¢ | $515.8 | $574.71 | +$58.91 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Clippersavg 54¢ | $545.2 | $484.9 | -$60.31 | 54% 1660-1438 (3098) |
 RN1 | Sunsavg 48.7¢ | $186.16 | $240.89 | +$54.73 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Clippersavg 49¢ | $98 | $96 | -$2 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Sunsavg 45¢ | $54.45 | $61.87 | +$7.42 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Clippersavg 48¢ | $14.4 | $14.4 | +$0 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
Invested
$515.8
Value
$574.71
PnL
+$58.91
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
Invested
$545.2
Value
$484.9
PnL
-$60.31
Record
54%
1660-1438 (3098)
RN1Invested
$186.16
Value
$240.89
PnL
+$54.73
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$98
Value
$96
PnL
-$2
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
Invested
$54.45
Value
$61.87
PnL
+$7.42
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$14.4
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.