Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Clippers, while the market favors Suns (82%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Suns (-5.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (67%) · Clippers at 18¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Suns82¢Clippers18¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$152.23

Smart Money Entry

47.6¢ → 18¢

-62% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Suns 82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Suns82%

Clippers18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,170

Combined PnL-$178.22

Suns3 traders

Total Value$163.59

Total Shares233

Combined PnL+$25.99

Clippers — 67%Suns — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrClippers 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Clippers 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Clippersavg 43¢	$928.96	$935.24	+$6.28	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Clippersavg 57¢	$648.32	$477.71	-$170.61	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
RN1ARB<$100	Sunsavg 54.7¢	$473.77	$461.72	-$12.05	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 54.7¢	$243.44	$309.51	+$66.07
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 46.2¢	$230.33	$152.2	-$78.13
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Sunsavg 50¢	$291.55	$324.7	+$33.15	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 50¢	$207.55	$240.7	+$33.15
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 42¢	$84	$84	+$0
38 38791873984189<$100	Sunsavg 67.6¢	$72.84	$85.71	+$12.87	48% 959-1032 (1991)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Sunsavg 51¢	$51	$58	+$7	30% 134-317 (451)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sunsavg 55¢	$13.75	$19.88	+$6.13	49% 446-472 (918)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Clippersavg 28.5¢	$26.07	$16.03	-$10.04	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Clippersavg 36.3¢	$5.45	$2.63	-$2.82	68% 1603-748 (2351)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Clippersavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.1	-$0.7	26% 185-519 (704)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Clippersavg 56¢	$1.27	$0.95	-$0.32	51% 330-315 (645)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Clippers

Invested

$928.96

Value

$935.24

PnL

+$6.28

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Clippers

Invested

$648.32

Value

$477.71

PnL

-$170.61

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

RN1ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$473.77

Value

$461.72

PnL

-$12.05

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Both legs:

Suns$243.4454.7¢+$66.07

Clippers$230.3346.2¢-$78.13

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$291.55

Value

$324.7

PnL

+$33.15

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Both legs:

Suns$207.5550¢+$33.15

Clippers$8442¢+$0

38791873984189<$100

Suns

Invested

$72.84

Value

$85.71

PnL

+$12.87

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

justaluckydude<$100

Suns

Invested

$51

Value

$58

PnL

+$7

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

Pan9X<$100

Suns

Invested

$13.75

Value

$19.88

PnL

+$6.13

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$26.07

Value

$16.03

PnL

-$10.04

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

RLWGCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$5.45

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$2.82

Record

68%

1603-748 (2351)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.7

Record

26%

185-519 (704)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$1.27

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.32

Record

51%

330-315 (645)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Suns 82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrClippers 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Clippers 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.8%

18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$405.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

505.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.