Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pacers vs. 76ers: O/U 222.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 44¢ · $500 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 86%
$499.61
-$12.27
45.8¢ → 43.5¢
-5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 45¢ | $270.23 | $270.23 | +$0 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $112.7 | $101.43 | -$11.27 | 38% 1341-2182 (3523) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 58.6¢ | $69.51 | $66.98 | -$2.53 | 46% 3227-3762 (6989) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $39.71 | $41.16 | +$1.45 | 49% 4635-4903 (9538) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $10.79 | $10.79 | +$0 | 38% 1317-2168 (3485) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $5.57 | $5.57 | -$0 | 59% 3949-2729 (6678) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $3.38 | $3.46 | +$0.08 | 53% 2305-2071 (4376) |
Invested
$270.23
Value
$270.23
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
Invested
$112.7
Value
$101.43
PnL
-$11.27
Record
38%
1341-2182 (3523)
Invested
$69.51
Value
$66.98
PnL
-$2.53
Record
46%
3227-3762 (6989)
Invested
$39.71
Value
$41.16
PnL
+$1.45
Record
49%
4635-4903 (9538)
Invested
$10.79
Value
$10.79
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1317-2168 (3485)
Invested
$5.57
Value
$5.57
PnL
-$0
Record
59%
3949-2729 (6678)
Invested
$3.38
Value
$3.46
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
2305-2071 (4376)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.