Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Pacers (55%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: 76ers (-9.5)

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (82%) · 76ers at 45¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

76ers45¢Pacers55¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 82%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$28.91

Smart Money Entry

40.6¢ → 45¢

+11% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 55%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers45%

Pacers55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers2 traders

Total Value$586.81

Total Shares1,057

Combined PnL-$36.77

76ers9 traders

Total Value$803.7

Total Shares1,960

Combined PnL+$7.86

Pacers — 18%76ers — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctr76ers 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 100076ers 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Pacersavg 59¢	$620.68	$583.86	-$36.82	69% 1738-776 (2514)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	76ersavg 41¢	$434.36	$434.29	-$0.07	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
LU LuckyLooCTR	76ersavg 39¢	$147.43	$154.99	+$7.56	35% 635-1160 (1795)
FL FlaznorpCTR	76ersavg 40¢	$139.6	$143.09	+$3.49	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
nigiri99CTR<$100	76ersavg 44¢	$24.2	$22.55	-$1.65	50% 747-737 (1484)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	76ersavg 42¢	$21.6	$21.09	-$0.51	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	76ersavg 42¢	$10.5	$10.25	-$0.25	50% 2190-2198 (4388)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	76ersavg 43¢	$9.69	$9.24	-$0.45	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	76ersavg 42¢	$6.3	$6.15	-$0.15	44% 337-422 (759)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Pacersavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.95	+$0.05	43% 861-1147 (2008)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	76ersavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.05	-$0.1	38% 1332-2185 (3517)

SunlineTicker

Pacers

Invested

$620.68

Value

$583.86

PnL

-$36.82

Record

69%

1738-776 (2514)

HomeRunHazardCTR

76ers

Invested

$434.36

Value

$434.29

PnL

-$0.07

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

LuckyLooCTR

76ers

Invested

$147.43

Value

$154.99

PnL

+$7.56

Record

35%

635-1160 (1795)

FlaznorpCTR

76ers

Invested

$139.6

Value

$143.09

PnL

+$3.49

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

nigiri99CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$24.2

Value

$22.55

PnL

-$1.65

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$21.6

Value

$21.09

PnL

-$0.51

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

Pan9XCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$9.69

Value

$9.24

PnL

-$0.45

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$6.3

Value

$6.15

PnL

-$0.15

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

ameisgoat11<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

43%

861-1147 (2008)

LimousinCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.1

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 55%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctr76ers 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 100076ers 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.