Spread: 76ers (-10.5)

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (11%) · Pacers at 60¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

76ers41¢Pacers59¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 11%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$4.3

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

76ers41%

Pacers60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers1 trader

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,640

Combined PnL-$94.47

76ers8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,765

Combined PnL+$90.17

Pacers — 11%76ers — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-49 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPacers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr76ers 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 100076ers 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeonDk	Pacersavg 63.1¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$94.47	76% 31-10 (41)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	76ersavg 36¢	$414.8	$466.65	+$51.85	69% 1738-776 (2514)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	76ersavg 40¢	$200	$202.5	+$2.5	58% 114-81 (195)
FL FlaznorpCTR	76ersavg 38¢	$177.04	$188.77	+$11.73	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
38 38791873984189CTR	76ersavg 37.3¢	$363.2	$187.25	+$19.89	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	76ersavg 38¢	$39.88	$42.51	+$2.62	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	76ersavg 37.8¢	$43.96	$26.25	+$2.45	50% 2190-2198 (4388)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	76ersavg 40¢	$10.35	$9.57	-$0.78	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	76ersavg 39¢	$2	$1.9	-$0.1	38% 1348-2243 (3591)

LeonDk

Pacers

Invested

$1,665

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$94.47

Record

76%

31-10 (41)

SunlineTickerCTR

76ers

Invested

$414.8

Value

$466.65

PnL

+$51.85

Record

69%

1738-776 (2514)

Zzzz87CTR

76ers

Invested

$200

Value

$202.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

114-81 (195)

FlaznorpCTR

76ers

Invested

$177.04

Value

$188.77

PnL

+$11.73

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

38791873984189CTR

76ers

Invested

$363.2

Value

$187.25

PnL

+$19.89

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$39.88

Value

$42.51

PnL

+$2.62

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

Pan9XCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$43.96

Value

$26.25

PnL

+$2.45

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$10.35

Value

$9.57

PnL

-$0.78

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-49 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPacers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr76ers 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 100076ers 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.