Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors Heat (52%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Heat (-7.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (50%) · Pacers at 49¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
6
Pacers 50%
$2.4K
$171.8
48.8¢ → 48.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeCTR | Pacersavg 49¢ | $999.6 | $1.3K | +$265.2 | 54% 3960-3431 (7391) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Heatavg 51.2¢ | $696.26 | $516.53 | -$179.73 | 53% 367-326 (693) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Pacersavg 48.3¢ | $388.19 | $498.57 | +$110.38 | 54% 17065-14298 (31363) |
D1 0xd106...c79c<$100 | Heatavg 51¢ | $95.26 | $70.97 | -$24.28 | 54% 3281-2830 (6111) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Pacersavg 48¢ | $20.64 | $20.86 | +$0.21 | 58% 41434-30051 (71485) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Heatavg 51¢ | $1.04 | $1.05 | +$0.01 | 46% 7787-9202 (16989) |
Invested
$999.6
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$265.2
Record
54%
3960-3431 (7391)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$696.26
Value
$516.53
PnL
-$179.73
Record
53%
367-326 (693)
Invested
$388.19
Value
$498.57
PnL
+$110.38
Record
54%
17065-14298 (31363)
Invested
$95.26
Value
$70.97
PnL
-$24.28
Record
54%
3281-2830 (6111)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$20.64
Value
$20.86
PnL
+$0.21
Record
58%
41434-30051 (71485)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.05
PnL
+$0.01
Record
46%
7787-9202 (16989)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.